Washington: The virus that hit China's supply chainThe disruption has already made a global impact. Developing countries in East Asia and the Pacific are recovering from trade tensions and struggling with The Virovirus-19 epidemic now faces another situation: the possibility of a financial crisis and a recession All over the world.
According to the World Bank report released on March 30, 2020.
So far, strong macroeconomic policies and sound financial regulations have helped most countries in the region, the World Bank said. East Asia and the Pacific to be able to cope with the usual agitation. But now we are confronted with a hypothetical situation where multiple and interconnected events pose a threat to the global economy. The nations of the world are unlikely to escape great economic hardship. So all countries must take action now – including making an immediate investment in health services capacity and targeted measures. Priority – To ease some of the immediate impact on the economy. The World Bank makes this recommendation in the April 2020 Economic Update for East Asia and the Pacific, titled "East Asia and the Pacific in the Kovid-19 period."
In such a fast-paced environment, it is difficult to accurately predict economic growth. Accordingly, the report only presents baseline and low case scenario.
Growth in the region is projected to slow to 2.1 percent in the bottom line and in the low scenario. It may decline to 0.5% in 2020, compared with 5.8% projected in 2019. China's economic growth is projected to slow to 2.3 percent in the mainland and to 0.1 percent in the first quarter. This low scenario by 2020 compares to the 6.1% growth seen in 2019. Blocking the virus from further spread may help the region's economy recover even slowly. The financial markets are still at risk.
The shaking forces of the Kovi-19 virus will also have a severe impact on poverty.
The report estimates that under the growth scenario, less than 24 million people will be able to escape poverty. All over the region by 2020 (using the poverty line at $ 5.5 per day) and this will be Most without the HIV-19 pandemic. If economic conditions continue to deteriorate, then poverty will increase, with about 11 million people going into poverty. Poverty. Earlier, it was estimated that nearly 35 million people in East Asia and the Pacific would be able to get out of poverty in By 2020, over 25 million are in China.
"Just a little bit earlier, countries," said Victoria Torkov, Vice President of the World Bank for East Asia and the Pacific. In East Asia and the Pacific, efforts are being made to deal with international trade tensions and the consequences of the crisis. The spread of the HIV-19 virus in China Acute, and is the country is facing a situation of global economic crisis. The good news is that the region still has a lot of strengths that it can exploit, but all countries must take action. And in such a large scale as never before. "
The report recommends a number of measures, including immediate investment in health system capacity and long-term preparedness.
The report also urges all countries to adopt a more holistic view of anti-virus measures and macroeconomic policies. Priority budget measures – such as sickness and health allowance – can help prevent the spread of viruses and help Make sure this temporary situation does not lead to long-term human capital loss.
"In addition," said Adidima Marty, World Bank senior economist for East Asia and the Pacific. Deepening international cooperation is the most effective vaccine against the threat. Countries in East Asia and the Pacific and elsewhere must join the fight, keep trade To remain the same and coordinate on macroeconomic policies. ”
The report calls for international cooperation and cross-border partnerships between the public and private sectors to enhance production and supply of equipment. Medical and essential services in this epidemic and to ensure financial stability later. Importantly, trade policy should remain open to enable the flow of medical supplies and supplies. Others between the countries, as well as facilitate the rapid economic growth of the region.
Another policy recommendation that the report proposes is that debt relief should be used to help families adjust their eating habits. They will also help the company survive the crisis.
However, given the potential for the crisis to linger, the report stressed the need to tighten measures together with And will monitor the implementation of special regulations because many countries in East Asia and the Pacific are in debt. Of the company and by the clause Already in advanced.
For the poorest countries, debt relief measures are crucial to being able to turn the resources necessary into focus on crisis management The virus has spread to the economy and to health.
The report also highlights the higher risks surrounding the likelihood of a decline in poverty among former families. Occupation depends on sectors that are most vulnerable to the impact of Kov-19 such as tourism in Thailand and According to the Pacific, manufacturing in Cambodia Vietnam and Vietnam, and among families that used to depend on informal labor in all countries. In some countries, the impact of Kov-19 has added to the problems of certain countries, such as droughts. (Thailand), or crisis of agricultural commodity crisis (Mongolia). In some Pacific Island countries, the outlook for 2020 is under great risk as their economies depend on aid. Grant, tourism and imports.
Due to the HIV-19 pandemic, the economic situation between countries is uncertain and varies from day to day. To one day. The analysis in this report is based on national data available as of March 27.
In response to this situation, the World Bank is implementing a US $ 14 billion financial package, releasing it quickly for Strengthen the response to the Kuwaiti-19 epidemic in various countries and help to accelerate economic recovery. Immediate response measures include financial assistance, policy advice and technical assistance to countries to cope with the impact of this. The epidemic is affecting the economy and health. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) is providing US $ 8 billion to help companies affected by the virus and to Let them keep the job. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA) are rolling out a $ 6 billion package for the measure. Responding to health. Due to the wide scope of aid needs, the World Bank Group is poised to launch a package of up to $ 160 billion for the period. 15 months to protect the poor and vulnerable, support businesses and boost the economy in the future. : Kolab